Sunday Night NFL Pick: New England Face Crucial Test Against NY Jets
Sunday, November 13, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
Analysis:
A month ago, the New England Patriots delivered a heavy blow. On Sunday, the New York Jets get their first chance at a significant counter.
The target of much overrated talk after a nine-point loss to the Patriots in October -- their third straight defeat after a 2-0 start -- the Jets enter Sunday's rematch at MetLife Stadium having won three consecutive games to get back to a first-place tie with the Patriots and Buffalo Bills atop the AFC East.
New York traveled to Orchard Park last week to defeat the Bills, 27-11, and now happily return home to northern New Jersey, where they're 4-0 this season and winners of two straight against New England since Rex Ryan's arrival as head coach in 2009.
The Patriots, who've dropped consecutive decisions to Pittsburgh and the New York Giants, haven't lost three straight games since 2002. That was the last season they failed to win at least 10 games and is the only year Tom Brady hasn't reached the playoffs as a starting quarterback.
The Jets won the division that year with Chad Pennington under center.
New York allowed 30 points or more in three straight losses from late September into October, including the 30-21 verdict at Gillette Stadium on Oct. 9. It's since rebounded with wins over Miami, San Diego and Buffalo to get to 5-3, allowing just 38 points and forcing eight turnovers in the three games.
New England's offense is second in the league with an average of 437.3 total yards per game, but it's scored 20 or fewer in three straight contests, gained only 213 yards against Pittsburgh and was shut out in the first half against the Giants.
Last week's loss also featured four turnovers, the third time the Patriots have had that many this season. Last year, they had one turnover in their final eight games.
Brady has thrown 10 interceptions this season after having just four en route to a unanimous selection as the NFL's Most Valuable Player in 2010.
On defense, the Patriots are the only team in the league allowing more than 300 passing yards per game.
In personnel news, New England released defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth Tuesday. It's other big-name offseason signee, wide receiver Chad Ochocinco, was targeted five times last week, but failed to catch a pass for the third straight game.
The Patriots are tied with San Diego with an NFL-best 24-7 record in division games from November through the end of season since 2002.
Time & Venue:
- 8:20 PM ET, Sunday, November 13, 2011. MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Last Week's results:
- New England Patriots (-9) loses to visiting NY Giants 24-20.
- NY Jets (+1) beats host Buffalo Bills 27-11.
Last week's ATS:
- Favourite New England Patriots (5-3) loses outright
- Underdog NY Jets (5-3) wins outright.
NFL Football Odds: Jets -1, O/U 47.5
Next up:
- New England home to Kansas City, Monday, November 21
- NY Jets at Denver, Thursday, November 17
Brady needs just one win to tie Hall of Famer Joe Montana (117) for the seventh-most victories by a starting quarterback in league history and owns a 14-5 regular-season record against the Jets.
Running back BenJarvus Green- Ellis had a career-best 136 rushing yards in last month's victory over the Jets and wide receiver Wes Welker had five receptions for 124 yards in that contest. Welker needs two receptions to join Troy Brown (557) and Stanley Morgan (534) as the only players in franchise history with 500 catches. Since entering the NFL in 2010, tight end Rob Gronkowski leads all players at his position with 16 touchdown catches.
On defense for New York, linebacker Calvin Pace recorded his first interception of the season last week against Buffalo and fellow linebacker Jamaal Westerman had a career-best two sacks in the Week 5 loss at New England. Rookie end Muhammad Wilkerson has 20 tackles and a sack in his initial season, while second-year cornerback Kyle Wilson has compiled 23 tackles and an interception.
In his past four starts, Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez has completed 68-of-112 passes (60.7 percent) for 770 yards, seven touchdowns, two interceptions and a 94.7 rating. He had two touchdowns and a 105.6 rating in the previous meeting between these teams and aims for his 25th regular-season win as a starter (24-15). In his last four games, running back Shonn Greene is averaging 86.3 rushing yards per game, while backfield mate LaDainian Tomlinson posted his first rushing touchdown of the season and 145th of his career last week, the second-most all-time behind Emmitt Smith (164).
Including the postseason, wide receiver Santonio Holmes aims for a third straight game with a touchdown against New England. Fellow wideout Plaxico Burress had a season-best five receptions and 79 receiving yards last week, while kick returner/running back Joe McKnight leads the league with 40.2-yard kick return average.
On defense for the Patriots, cornerback Kyle Arrington is tied for the NFL lead with five interceptions, while end Andre Carter has 32 tackles, 4 1/2 sacks and a forced fumble on the front line. Brandon Spikes leads the linebacker corps with 44 tackles, but injured his knee against the Giants and isn't expected to play.
Since the arrival of Rex Ryan, the Jets have convinced themselves they can play with the Patriots, as evidenced by two regular-season wins and a playoff victory in his two seasons. That confidence will be needed against traditionally one of the league's most successful teams.
Greene went over 100 yards against Buffalo and the Jets have averaged 130-plus yards on the ground during their three-game win streak after languishing near the bottom of the league in that category. They gained just 97 rushing yards in the first meeting with the Patriots, however.
In one of the most important matchups to watch, Welker looks likely to be lined up against Jets All-Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis, against whom he caught five passes -- including one for 72 yards -- last month in New England.
ERREUR: aucun objet portant le numero 322
A win would allow Brady and Belichick to surpass Miami's Don Shula and Dan Marino (116) for the most wins by a quarterback-coach duo since 1966.
New York has won four straight home games and has won its last six overall in November.
Brady needs 297 yards to become the second QB (Drew Brees) to throw for 3,000 yards in the first nine games of a season. Jets RB LaDainian Tomlinson needs 45 yards from scrimmage to surpass Barry Sanders (18,190) for fifth place all time.
NY Jets are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games when playing at home against New England
NY Jets are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games when playing at home against New England
NY Jets are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home
New England is 14-5 SU in their last 19 games when playing NY Jets
New England is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
More so than any coach in recent franchise history, Ryan has helped the Jets shed the identity of being the Patriots' sparring partner. New York has progressed significantly since the Week 5 loss while New England has stepped back, leaving this matchup more similar to what it looked like before last season's AFC Divisional Playoff. That was a Gang Green victory. This should be, too.
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NFL Football Pick: Take Jets.
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Tags
albert haynesworth - benjarvus green-ellis - brandon spikes - buffalo bills - calvin pace - chad ochocinco - darrelle revis - gillette stadium - jamaal westerman - joe mcknight
