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MNF Pick: Monday Yawner Between St Louis Rams vs Seattle Seahawks

Monday, December 12, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

Tarvaris Jackson - MNF Pick: Monday Yawner Between St Louis Rams vs Seattle Seahawks

Analysis:
In a season that's been filled with low points, the St Louis Rams may be about to hit rock bottom. Saddled with a three-game losing streak and the likelihood of having to start a third-string quarterback who's never played in an NFL game, the Rams head to CenturyLink Field to take on a Seattle Seahawks team that enters this Monday night NFC West clash on an upswing.

Injuries have ravaged St. Louis during a thoroughly disappointing campaign in which the long-suffering club was expected to contend for a playoff spot, with perhaps the most notable one a serious ankle sprain to promising young quarterback Sam Bradford that's kept the 2010 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year sidelined for a total of three games and very doubtful for Monday's tilt. Veteran understudy A.J. Feeley, who filled in for Bradford in last week's 26-0 loss at division champion San Francisco, has all but been ruled out as well after fracturing his right thumb during the contest.

As a result, a national audience will probably be introduced to Tom Brandstater, a 27-year-old who's bounced around with five different organizations since being taken in the sixth-round of the 2009 draft by Denver and was out of football until being re-signed to the Rams' practice squad on Dec. 2. Journeyman Kellen Clemens was brought in on Wednesday to presumably serve as the backup for this Week 14 matchup.

That may be a task easier said than done for the 2-10 Rams, as the Seahawks have been playing their best football of the season over the last month. The 2010 NFC West title-holders have won three of their last four games, which includes a 24-7 throttling of St. Louis on the road in Week 11, and are coming off a 31-14 victory over underachieving Philadelphia on Dec. 1.

Seattle's surge has been keyed by running back Marshawn Lynch, with the physical fifth-year pro having eclipsed the 100-yard rushing mark in four of the team's past five outings and racked up a season-best 148 yards and two scores against the Eagles.

The Seahawks also got a very efficient showing from inconsistent quarterback Tarvaris Jackson in the Philadelphia game, with the offseason addition completing 13-of-16 passes for 190 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions, while the defense intercepted the Eagles' Vince Young four times in the rout.

The only time Lynch was held under 100 yards over that five-game stretch came in the Nov. 20 meeting with the Rams, with the former first-round pick managing 88 yards on 27 carries. However, St. Louis is last in the NFL in run defense, surrendering a troubling average of 157.8 yards per game on the ground.

Seattle will attempt to improve on a 3-3 home record this season in Monday's bout as well as keep its faint playoff hopes intact. Though claiming the NFC West is out after the 49ers wrapped up the division with last Sunday's shutout of the Rams, the Seahawks do stand two games back in the conference Wild Card race with four to go.

The Seahawks own a 16-10 advantage in their overall regular-season series with St. Louis and have bested the Rams in 12 of the last 13 meetings between the teams, including the above-mentioned win at the Edward Jones Dome last month.

Seattle also clinched its most recent NFC West title with a 16-6 home triumph over St. Louis in Week 17 of the 2010 season and have topped the Rams at CenturyLink Field in each of the last six years. St. Louis last prevailed in Seattle in a non-playoff setting on Oct. 10, 2004, earning a 33-27 overtime verdict, but did hand the Seahawks a 20-3 defeat in the Gateway City last season.

St. Louis did win on the road in a 2004 NFC First-Round Playoff game against Seattle, a 27-20 victory that stands as the only postseason encounter to date between the franchises.

Pete Carroll is 2-2 lifetime against the Rams, with the first loss coming while at the helm of the New England Patriots in 1998. St. Louis head coach Steve Spagnuolo has a 1-4 record versus the Seahawks and is 1-2 when going head-to- head with Carroll.

Time & Venue:
- 8:30 PM ET, Monday, December 12, 2011. CenturyLink Field, Seattle, Washington

Last Week's results:
- St Louis Rams (+13) loses to host San Francisco 49ers 26-0.
- Seattle Seahawks (+3) beats visiting Philadelphia Eagles 31-14.

Last week's ATS:
- Underdog St Louis Rams (2-10) loses and does not cover
- Underdog Seattle Seahawks (5-7) wins outright.

NFL Football Odds: Seahawks -10.5, O/U 37

Next up:
- St. Louis home to Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, December 18
- Seattle at Chicago Bears, Sunday, December 18

The Seattle offense has rebuilt itself around the hard running of Lynch over the course of this season's second half, and that figures to be the game plan once again this week in a matchup with the NFL's worst run defense. It's absolutely essential for the Rams to prevent the Seahawks' catalyst from going ballistic, and holding Lynch in check would allow St. Louis to utilize its strength of pressuring the passer against an offensive line that hasn't been very good in protection.

Although Spagnuolo is holding out hope that Bradford can play, the odds of the Rams sending out their franchise quarterback in a relatively meaningless game appear long. That means Brandstater is going to have to show himself to at least be a serviceable option, and getting RB Steven Jackson untracked would certainly help the cause as well. That'll be a difficult assignment, however, considering St. Louis' problems up front and the Seahawks' usually solid play in defending the run.

Playing at home against a two-win team likely starting a third-string quarterback with no experience, the Seahawks have a game that's made to order here as long as they don't cripple themselves with mistakes. Seattle is 3-2 this season when committing one turnover or less but 2-5 when having two or more giveaways, so it's important that Jackson makes good decisions like he was able to do against Philadelphia.

St. Louis bottomed out in last week’s 26-0 loss at San Francisco. The league’s lowest-scoring team managed a season-worst 157 yards of total offense and lost backup QB Feeley to a broken thumb on his throwing hand. Jackson was limited to 42 yards in a 24-7 loss to the Seahawks last month.

Lynch has rushed for 591 yards in the past five games, the most in the NFL.

Rams DE Chris Long has a six-game sack streak, collecting nine in that span.

In the last four meetings in Seattle, the Seahawks have outscored the Rams 114-25.

Seattle is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis
St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
St. Louis is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Seattle
St. Louis is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games

The decimated Rams would have been hard-pressed to come away with a victory in a venue in which they've experienced little success over the years even if Bradford managed to suit up, and there's practically no chance of that considering the deplorable state of the team's offensive line.

Shutting down the league's lowest-scoring team should be no sweat for a Seattle defense that's been performing well in recent weeks with Brandstater at the controls, and Lynch stands a good chance of adding to his string of dominant games against a porous St. Louis stop unit. The Seahawks won't need to get fancy to keep their playoff dreams still plausible with another win; a workmanlike effort would do just fine.

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NFL Football Pick: Take Seahawks.

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a.j. feeley - centurylink field - chicago bears - chris long - cincinnati bengals - edward james dome - kellen clemens - marshawn lynch - nfc west - pete carroll

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