Battle For Position Between Atlanta Falcons And New Orleans Saints
Monday, December 26, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
Analysis:
With Dan Marino's NFL single-season passing almost a certainty to be shattered, Drew Brees will surely put that thought in the back of his mind as he and his posse prepare their critical divisional matchup with the visiting Atlanta Falcons on Monday night. Brees needs 305 yards to surpass the mark of 5,084 set by Marino in 1984, a fairly decent proposition given the fact he has thrown for a league-record 11 300-yard games this season.
Of more importance to both teams is how the game will impact both their postseason fates. Winners of six straight, New Orleans can wrap up the NFC South title with a victory but remains in contention for the No. 2 seed in the conference. Atlanta still has an outside shot at winning the division and holds a tiebreaker edge over Detroit for the No. 5 seed.
Though the Saints have already clinched a place in the upcoming playoffs, the home game that comes with winning the division should ensure they'll have plenty of motivation for Monday's clash. New Orleans has been dominant at the Superdome over the course of this 2011 season, prevailing in all six of its bouts to date while averaging an astounding 39.8 points per game.
The Saints were forced to take to the road as a Wild Card entry in last year's postseason and wound up being bounced by a 7-9 Seattle squad in the opening round.
New Orleans' prolific offense also hasn't had too much trouble scoring away from home, as evidenced by last week's 42-20 throttling of the overmatched Minnesota Vikings in Minneapolis. The Saints rolled up 573 total yards on the afternoon, in large part due to a near-flawless performance from standout quarterback Drew Brees.
The league MVP candidate completed 32-of-40 passes against the Vikings for 412 yards and five touchdowns without an interception, becoming the first player in NFL history to throw for over 400 yards and five scores with no picks while hitting on 80 percent of his throws in a single outing.
The New Orleans defense did its part as well in last Sunday's triumph, limiting the Vikings to 207 total yards and recording four sacks to help the Saints to their sixth consecutive win.
Atlanta comes into Monday's tilt on a nice roll of its own, with the club's 41-14 dismantling of lowly Jacksonville in Week 15 giving the Falcons wins in two straight games and seven of their last nine tests.
One of the losses over that stretch did come at the hands of the Saints, however, with New Orleans coming out on top in a 26-23 overtime thriller at the Georgia Dome on Nov. 13. The go-ahead points came on a short field-goal from kicker John Kasay that was set up by the Saints stopping the Falcons on 4th- and-1 from the Atlanta 29-yard line.
The last four encounters between these rivals have all had a final margin of three points.
Atlanta leads its overall regular-season series with New Orleans by a 45-39 count, but the Saints have taken five of the last six games between the teams and are 9-2 in their 11 most recent matchups with the Falcons. Atlanta was able to halt a string of four consecutive losses at the Superdome with a 27-24 decision there last season, though New Orleans exacted revenge via a 17-14 verdict at the Georgia Dome later that year. The Saints will be attempting to sweep their home-and-home set with the Falcons for the fourth time in the past six seasons.
These longtime division foes have also opposed one another once in the postseason, with Atlanta posting a 27-20 win at the Superdome in a 1991 NFC First-Round Playoff.
Sean Payton is 9-2 against the Falcons during his six-year tenure as the Saints' head coach, while Atlanta's Mike Smith has gone 2-5 against both New Orleans and Payton in his present position.
Time & Venue:
- 8:30 PM ET, Monday, December 26, 2011. Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Last Week's results:
- Atlanta Falcons (-11) beats visiting Jacksonville Jaguars 41-14.
- New Orleans Saints (-6.5) beats host Minnesota Vikings 42-20
Last week's ATS:
- Favourite Atlanta Falcons (9-5) wins and covers
- Favourite New Orleans Saints (11-3) wins and covers.
NFL Football Odds: Saints -7, O/U 53
Next up:
- Atlanta home to Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, January 1
- New Orleans home to Carolina Panthers, Sunday, January 1
Atlanta has won four of five since an overtime home loss to the Saints on Nov. 13. The Falcons have had ample time to prepare since thumping Jacksonville 41-14 on Dec. 15. QB Matt Ryan threw for a modest 224 yards and three TDs, including a pair to Roddy White, who had 10 receptions for 135 yards. It was the second 10-catch performance in four games for White, who has five TDs in that stretch. In an attempt to keep Brees off the field, Atlanta could feature a heavy dose of Michael Turner, who has rushed for 265 yards and two TDs in the last two visits to New Orleans.
How good has Brees been? In his last five games, he has thrown for 1,776 yards with 16 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He threw five TD passes in last week’s 42-20 rout at Minnesota and has completed 20-plus passes in a league-record 34 straight games. Top pick Mark Ingram (toe) sat out the last two games, but it hasn’t slowed New Orleans, which got 151 rushing yards from RBs Christopher Ivory, Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles last week. Sproles has been a major weapon out of the backfield with 79 receptions, including at least five in 12 games. Jimmy Graham leads NFL tight ends in receptions (87) and yards (1,171).
It goes without saying that the Falcons will be hard-pressed to win this game if they can't prevent Brees from picking their defense apart with his pinpoint passing. LB John Abraham will have to a factor like he was last week if Atlanta is to accomplish the difficult task of slowing the Saints down, and he'll need help from 2011 disappointments Ray Edwards and Kroy Biermann on the other side. The Falcons do have the necessary skill players to keep up in a track meet, so DC Greg Williams also needs to devise ways of making Ryan uncomfortable in the pocket.
Brees has been virtually unstoppable on the Superdome turf during his record-setting campaign, generating a tremendous 20-to-3 touchdown-to- interception ratio for an offense that averages nearly 40 points at home. That means Atlanta's quarterback has to be at the top of his game for his team to match New Orleans' firepower. In Atlanta's five losses this season, Ryan has been intercepted seven times and thrown for just five touchdowns.
Surprisingly, neither of these powerful offenses were effective down near the goal line in the first meeting, with both teams settling for field goal tries on three possessions each in the red zone. Whichever one can break through in that all-important area will have a distinct advantage on Monday.Although the Saints have won nine of past 11 meetings overall, each of the last four with Atlanta have been decided by three points.
Brees has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 41 consecutive games, the second-longest streak in NFL history behind Johnny Unitas' 47.
"I hope he's at his highest level because if he plays any better I don't know if there's any way to stop him." – Falcons coach Mike Smith on Brees' recent play.
Seattle is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games at home
San Francisco is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Seattle
San Francisco is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games on the road
San Francisco9-2-1 SU in its last 12 games
This one has all the makings of living up to its advance billing, as both offenses have been operating at high levels during the stretch run and the history of this series suggests the game will be close. However, recent results have also been well in favor of the Saints, and having this contest held at the Superdome is a variable that clearly benefits the home team as well.
The Falcons aren't going to go down easy and should be able to hit on some big plays on New Orleans' gambling defense, but there's no question that the Saints possess the more explosive and consistent of these two offenses. The combination of Brees and the Superdome aura is simply too formidable to ignore.
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NFL Football Pick: Take Saints.
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atlanta falcons - carolina panthers - christopher ivory - darren sproles - drew brees - georgia dome - jacksonville jaguars - jimmy graham - john abraham - john kasay
